Periodization of Russia’s Full-Scale War on Ukraine | Key Stages & Analysis

 It has been three years since Russia made its wide-scale aggression on Ukraine. The 24th of February is the date that disrupted the peaceful life of each one of us. This day has become a symbol of endurance and heroism of the Ukrainian people who unitedly stood up to the enemy, protecting their land, freedom and their children’s future. In these two years, Ukrainians have demonstrated their bravery, courage, self-sacrificing and devotion to the country. Alongside Ukrainians, stood the international community that supported the people’s pursuit of freedom and joined them in their fight against Russian aggression.

The Research Center of Military History of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in 2022 developed periodization of the contemporary Russian-Ukrainian War and updated it in the biggening of 2024. Periodization was approved by Ukrainian military authority and personally by Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine General V. Zaluzhnyi. It provides basement for comprehensive and objective scrutiny of the experience and to creates a foundation for its scientific study by the specialists of the military history research. 

Periodization of the third period, which starts with the full-scale invasion of the Russian Armed Forces on February 24th, 2022, was put together in collaboration with the Main Operational Directorate of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine. Preparation for the invasion took place within the last stage of the second period of armed aggression (December 2021 – February 24th, 2022). 

A number of the stages were singled out within the third period of the war by identifying the most significant features of the military-political, military-strategic and operational situation.

The preparatory period of the full-scale war (December 2021 – February 23rd, 2022) – covers the major measures taken by the political leadership of the Russian Federation to initiate the aggressive war, the measures Ukrainian military-political leadership took to prepare for fighting back, and the strategic deployment of the party’s troops.

Stage one: first strategic defense operation (February 24th – April 2022) – the enemy’s troops invasion from multiple border points in order to fulfill a “blitzkrieg” scenario and achieve the following objectives: seize Kyiv, overthrow legitimate Ukrainian leadership and install a puppet government, siege and isolate Ukrainian troops in the United Forces operation zone, occupy eastern and southern territories of Ukraine to provide a land corridor to Crimea and Transnistria. At this stage, defense action of the Ukrainian defense forces alignment disrupted the enemy’s strategic offensive operation, prevented the capital seizure, hindered the enemy from gaining advantage (domination) in the air, and halted the Russian troops in every direction. Ukrainian military-political leadership rallied the international community for economic and diplomatic isolation of the aggressor and created conditions that ensured large-scale material and technical aid provision from the partner states.

Stage two: second strategic defense operation (May-August 2022) – the enemy abandoned their initial plans, withdrew and regrouped the troops, and mainly focused on seizing the whole of Donetsk and Luhansk regions and retaining the already occupied territories. At the same time, the enemy lost strategic initiative, and offensive intensity was considerably reduced in most directions. Ukraine’s defense forces rid the enemy of control in the southwest of the Black Sea. The measures taken by the military-political leadership of Ukraine (building up reserves, receipt of material and technical aid, elaborate preparation and planning) created conditions for strategic offensive operations to liberate the territories occupied by Russians.

Stage three: first strategic offensive operation (August 29th – November 2022) – Ukrainian forces conducted a large-scale strategic offensive operation in Kherson and Kupiansk-Lyman directions that led to liberating most of the occupied territories of the Kharkiv region as well as throwing the enemy’s troops back over the barrier line of Dnipro River. To halt the advance of the Ukrainian forces and retain control over still occupied territories, compensate for the losses and build up reserves, the enemy resorted to partial mobilization and widening the involvement of private military companies in the war action. Under the threat of losing control over the occupied territories, the military-political leadership of RF announced the annexation of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions. The enemy started a strategic air offensive aiming to destroy the critical (power) infrastructure of Ukraine in order to deprive the country’s population of determination to resist the armed assault.

Events, described in the military-historical outline of the Russian-Ukrainian War (24.02.2023 – 24.02.2024) “Second year of the war. Testing the strength” occurred within stage four (book І), five (book ІІ) and six (book ІІІ) of the third period of the war. The stages can be characterized as follows: 

Stage four: third strategic defense operation (December 2022 року – mid-May 2023) – after Ukrainian defense forces successfully deployed the strategic offensive operation and liberated a considerable part of Kharkiv and Kherson regions, the strategic defense operation began. The enemy concentrated on defense action within Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions, and proceeded with an offensive in the Donetsk region.

Within stage four of the full-scale invasion, having regrouped forces and capabilities, the enemy:

In the eastern ZO, deployed offensive and assault action, Bakhmut and Shakhtarsk direction, aiming to take hold of critical strongpoints. To achieve the aim, the enemy deployed an intensive assault of Soledar, Bakhmut, Vuhledar and adjacent settlements alongside an offensive in Avdiivka DO – with continuous attempts to siege the Ukrainian forces in the area. Additionally, an offensive in Kupiansk and Lyman DO was conducted to make the Ukrainian defense forces withdraw over the rivers of Oskil and Seversky Donets barrier lines that would allow the enemy to occupy the whole of Donetsk region as well as regain previously lost positions in the west of Luhansk region – an offensive action in Dvorichna and Kreminna.

In the southwest ZO, focused on keeping hold of occupied southern territories of Ukraine. This included special operations in Kherson direction to establish control over islands in the delta of Dnipro river; retrenchment of echeloned defense lines in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia directions; preparation for static defense on approach to Crimea.

The Ukrainian defense forces were in the defense at stage four, holding back the enemy advance, draining their offensive potential with steadfast defense, thus preconditioning the counter-offensive action.

The most significant tactical episodes that occurred at stage four were:

The Battle of Bakhmut (December 2022 – May 2023). The enemy focused on ousting AFU from Bakhmut, Krasna Hora, Soledar defense area; breaching towards Sloviansk; creating conditions for sieging the Ukrainian task force in Siversk, Bilihorivka and Spiren areas. Russian task force maintained continuous offensive and assault, massively utilizing artillery and multiple fire teams from a number of private military companies that replenished their manpower by mercenary prisoners. At the expense of considerable manpower losses and artillery fire concentrations, the enemy gradually pushed the Ukrainian units back: Bakhmutske was seized on February 5th, 2023; Soledar – January 16th;  Blahodatne  – January 29th, Krasna Hora – February 12th, Paraskoviivka – February 18th, Berkhivka  and Yahidne – February 24th. The enemy’s advance towards Sloviansk and Siversk was halted on Orikhovo-Vasylivka,  Vasyukivka, Rozdolivka line. Starting end of February, the major focus was on advancing towards Yahidne, Khromove and Klishchiivka, Ivanivske in order to disrupt the logistic support of Ukrainian troops defending Bakhmut, as well as on assault operations in the city. Every street and house were fought for. For their assault to succeed, the enemy was ruining the city with artillery fire concentrations and airstrikes. However, their tactical gains were insignificant, with slow advance and considerable loss of manpower. They failed to disrupt the logistic support and siege Ukrainian units. The seizure of then completely ruined Bakhmut occurred on May 22nd when the last Ukrainian units left the city.

The battle of Vuhledar (January-February 2023). The enemy aimed to oust AFU units from Vuhledar area and breach TTF “Donetsk” defense lines. In the first half of January – the first ten days of February, the enemy actively advanced intensively baking infantry by attack helicopters. The enemy assaulted many of the Ukrainian defense lines from multiple directions. At the expense of considerable manpower losses, the enemy troops made a two-kilometer advance towards Vuhledar. However, they failed to gain operational space and breach Ukrainian forces defense lines on approach to the city. Ukrainian troops defense system utilized the area’s natural terrain, heights were used for setting up strongpoints. On February 9th, Ukrainian defense forces thrashed the enemy’s armored group comprising tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, armored carriers and armored engineer vehicles. In March-May, the enemy’s attacks receded. Vuhledar area remained among the crucial ones in defense position systems in the Eastern zone of operations.

Special operations in the lower valley of Dnipro River. Having withdrawn from the right-bank Kherson in November 2022, the enemy sought to acquire control over Dnipro delta islands in order to take an advantageous tactical position. This would allow them to prevent the Ukrainian forces from utilizing the islands and adjacent basin for bridging and potentially forcing the river as well as secure a bridgehead for subversive reconnaissance activity on the right-bank Kherson and capability to conduct UAV reconnaissance of Ukrainian troops positions there to adjust fire. At the beginning of December 2022, the occupants deployed a tactical assault on VelykyiPotomkin island, gaining a foothold there. The enemy mined the stream, and forcefully evacuated the island population to temporarily occupied territory.

Starting the end of 2022, AFU task force units, SOF, Mr, TDO, ran special operations to take and hold control over and the islands in the river delta, and subsequently secure a bridgehead on the left bank and put up bridging across the river. The operations included: raids to the delta islands and the left bank of Kherson region, elimination of the enemy’s footholds and observation posts, reconnaissance of launching positions of enemy’s artillery followed by their fire destruction,  holdingthe river bank and streams under artillery control, detection and neutralization of enemy subversive reconnaissance groups, counterfire effort. As a result, at the beginning of January 2023, the Ukrainian forces regained control over VelykyiPotomkin island, and within January and February conducted several successful raids in the area of Oleshky and Nova Kakhovka. The combat then went on to keep hold of the control over the islands with continued counterfire effort. The Ukrainian forces were preparing to acquire a bridgehead on Dnipro left bank. However, on June 6th, 2023, the enemy blew up Kakhovka HPS, temporarily flooding the islands and forcing the Ukrainian troops to withdraw.

Stage five: second strategic offensive operation (end of May – beginning of November 2023) – at stage five of the full-scale invasion, the Ukrainian troops started the second strategic offensive operation aiming to liberate the temporarily occupied territories of the state. Ukrainian defense forces concentrated on offensive action within Kherson, Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk regions.

The combat covered two TO:

In the eastern ZO: within the northern part of Donetsk, the western part of Luhansk, the eastern part of Kharkiv regions (directions: Bakhmut, Avdiivka, Mariinka, Kupiansk, Lyman, Shakhtarsk);

In the southwest ZO: within the southeastern part of Mykolaiv, southern parts of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions (directions: Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Melitopol, Berdiansk).

Having regrouped forces and capabilities, at stage five of the full-scale invasion, the Ukrainian defense forces focused their effort on:

In the eastern ZO: conducting offensive action in Bakhmut direction; containment of the enemy’s advance and launching a counter assault in Kupiansk, Avdiivka, Mariinka, Shakhtarsk directions; conducting an offensive in Tavria front sector.

In the southwest ZO: conducting offensive action in Zaporizhzhia direction, preconditioning offensive action in Kherson direction. 

The enemy took measures to fortify their defense lines and slow down AFU offensive operation:

In the northwest ZO: conducting spoof action on Brest, Pynsk, Mozyr, Homelline in order to contain Ukrainian defense forces concentrated in Volyn and Polissiaoperational directions; building up force on the territory of RB by means of PMC “Vagner” involvement; containment of Ukrainian defense forces concentrated in Siversk direction by harassing shelling, hitting the Ukrainian defense forces operations control centers, destruction of military and civil infrastructure objects on the territory of Chernihiv and Sumy.

In the eastern ZO: concentrated their effort on offensive and assault action in Mariinka, Kupiansk, Lyman direction in order to breach Ukrainian defense forces positions in Stelmakhivka, Karmazynivka, Torske sector, and advance to the barrier line of Zherebets and Oskil rivers. The enemy conducted defense action in Bakhmutdirection to prevent Ukrainian forces advance in Orikhovo-Vasylivka, Bohdanivka, Ivanivske, Klishchiivka, as well as in Avdiivka and Shakhtarsk direction to keep hold of previously established footholds. 

In the southwest ZO – concentrated their effort on the containment of Ukrainian TOT through defense activity in Oleshky, Nova Kahovka, Kamianka-Dniprovska, Energodar, Kamianske, Dolynka, Rabotyne, Myrne, Marfopil, Poltavka, Levadne, Rivnopil, Velyka Novosilka sector, and reinforced retrenchment of echeloned defense lines in Zaporizhzhia direction.

The most significant tactical episodes, objects, and direction of the major effort in defense and offensive operations within stage five were: 

Assault action of Ukrainian defense forces units and divisions in Bakhmutdirection. In May 2023, the combat culminated: there was no reason to protect the city because of its destruction by artillery fire and airstrikes. Therefore, the defenders had to withdraw to its outskirts under the enemy’s overwhelming numbers. However, having seized Bakhmut, the enemy found themselves in a disadvantageous tactical position since the Ukrainian troops held control over commanding heights to the west of the city. As early as May 8th-9th Ukrainian divisions initiated a counterattack on the enemy’s Bakhmut task force flanks in order to oust Russian troops and have the city in operational encirclement in the following directions: Bohdanivka, Berkhivka, Stupochky, Klishchiivka; Bila Hora, Andriivka. Within the offensive operation of the defense forces in the south of Ukraine, the advance in Bakhmut direction served as an assistive strike, containing the enemy’s troops and preventing the redeployment of forces to other directions. First, the Ukrainian troops succeeded in the area to the north of Bakhmut, having closely approached Berkhivka, and then, from the end of May, slowly but gradually, they started advancing to the south to Klishchiivka and Andriivka. By the end of October 2023, the enemy had been driven out of both settlements.

Offensive operation in Melitopol and Berdiansk directions. To conduct an offensive operation, a Ukrainian defense force strike group was formed within 9th and 10th ACs and TTF “Marun”. A part of the brigades’ personnel received training and combat coordination abroad. Certain brigades of the offensive task force were equipped with western WME: tanks, combat armored vehicles, demining equipment and small arms. To provide for the success of the operation, which began on June 4th, the offensive was conducted in several directions simultaneously to disorient the enemy with respect to where the major strike would be from. The main objective of the operation was breaching the enemy’s line of defense, siege of Melitopol and subsequent approach to Crimea, and disruption of land communication between RF and the temporarily occupied territories.

As a result of the offensive, Ukrainian defense forces divisions and units managed to liberate Lobkove and Piatykhatky in June and Robotyne at the end of august in the Melitopol direction; Neskuchne, Blahodatne, Storozheve, Novodarivka, Levadne, Makarivka in Berdiansk direction were liberated before mid-June, Rivnopil– at the end the month, Staromaiorske – at the end of July, and Urozhaine – mid-August.

However, the AFU offensive task force operation was unsuccessful for a number of reasons: the offensive was conducted with no air support advantage (domination), which made a deep maneuver by mechanized formations impossible, and demining equipment was easily targeted by the enemy’s anti-tank weapons, UAV and army aviation. Therefore, the enemy’s reinforced deep echelon defense lines could not be overcome. 

At the beginning of July, the AFU divisions and units offensive slowed down and the tactics of offensive by small assault groups was used to prevent considerable losses of armored vehicles. At the end of August, Ukrainian divisions liberated Robotyne, and proceeded the offensive towards Verbove, with no success though. Till the end of October, our divisions had a few tactical gains in different sectors of Melitopol direction. However, the enemy managed to regroup and redeploy reserves that allowed for their counterattacks.

The enemy managed to keep hold of the defense line and prevent the breach by Ukrainian troops. At the same time, having Ukrainian troops engaged in combat in the main directions, the enemy started their offensive action in other directions mid-summer, possibly counting on AFU reserves depletion.

Mid-summer 2023, the enemy regrouped their troops (forces) in Kupianskdirection, and pulled up reserves to concentrate the effort on the offensive that would push Ukrainian troops to the other bank of Oskil river. At stage one (June 2023), the enemy conducted an active offensive in different sectors, aiming to detect weaknesses in the Ukrainian troops defense: they first attempted to breach in the north sector (Svatove, Borova direction); mid-June the effort was transferred to the south (Lyman Pershyi, Kupiansk direction); at the end of July, they attacked in the north again. In all directions, the enemy’s tactical progress was temporary and was mitigated by the Ukrainian forces counterattacks.

At stage two of the offensive (August 2023), the enemy fully concentrated their major efforts in the northern sector, attempting to breach toward Kupiansk, forcing the Ukrainian leadership to evacuate civilians from Kupiansk and surrounding settlements. In August, the enemy was gradually building up their efforts and had tactical progress near Synkivka. Significant losses the enemy endured were promptly compensated at the expense of reserves. However, by the end of the month, they exhausted the offensive potential and, having taken an operational pause, proceeded with unsuccessful short-term offensive actions in Borova direction in September.

Stage three of the enemy’s offensive in Kupiansk direction was conducted alongside the beginning of an operation in Avdiivka direction. On October 9th-10th, there were two enemy strikes: major – towards Kupiansk, and an assistive strike – toward Borova. Nevertheless, despite the effort, the enemy failed to achieve their aim and breach the Ukrainian troops defense. Thus, the planned breach was halted in the combat for Synkivka village, which remained unseized until the end of 2023.

On October 10th, 2023, the enemy commenced an offensive operation in Avdiivka direction aiming to siege and seize Avdiivka by conducting an assault from the north (Krasnohorivka, Stepove direction), front (Yasynuvata, Avdiivka direction) and south (Vodiane, Pervomaiske direction) simultaneously. The enemy attempted to breach the Ukrainian troops defense line by mechanized columns and artillery support.  The enemy was utilizing Donetsk and Yasynuvata buildings for the concentration of the troops assault task force and setting up artillery launch positions. However, they faced a steadfast defense from Ukrainian troops, who had been destroying the columns of the enemy’s equipment before it was even deployed. Therefore, despite minor tactical gains, the enemy neither managed to enter the city nor siege it. At the same time, the Ukrainian troops divisions kept hold of the support lines, which allowed for reinforcement of the city defense task force by divisions redeployed from Zaporizhzhia direction. At the end of October, the enemy changed their tactics and went on to conduct an offensive by small infantry groups with limited use of armored vehicles. Thus, the enemy troops operating in Avdiivkadirection, found themselves in a similar situation to the Ukrainian task force advancing in Melitopol and Berdiansk directions, where mechanized divisions, unsupported from the air, did not manage to breach the deeply echeloned defense set up much in advance.

Stage six: fourth strategic defense operation (November 2023 – now)

At the new stage of the full-scale Russia-Ukraine war, both parties are forming new reserves and increasing WME manufacturing in preparation for a new 2024 campaign that would take into account the combat experience of 2023. At the same time, Ukrainian defense force units keep on containing the enemy’s advance in Kupiansk and Avdiivka directions.

The theater, operational directions, and forms and ways the armed forces are utilized remained the same since the end of stage five.